This story was originally published by Dead Spin
With just 12 regular-season games on the schedule, every Saturday carries significant weight in the college football season.
Two weeks of the 2024 campaign are complete, and after Week 3, most programs will be a quarter of the way through their schedule.
The sample size provides some insight, with positive momentum evident for the best teams in the nation. Others were tripped up on the way to the heart of the schedule in October and November and are flying into the danger zone unless they can turn it around immediately.
10. Maryland
Aug 31, 2024; College Park, Maryland, USA; Maryland Terrapins quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. (9) delivers a pass during the second quarter against the Connecticut Huskies at SECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Kucin Jr.-USA TODAY Sports Opening Big Ten play at home against a Michigan State team that is in a considerable rebuild could have been a springboard for Maryland. Instead, the Terps continued last season’s vexing trend of dropping one-score conference games — three of their five defeats were by a touchdown or less in 2023.
It’s time for the Terps to sweat. They are in an early hole with a road trip to Indiana next on the Big Ten docket, USC visiting on Oct. 19, and a treacherous November of Oregon, Iowa and Penn State to finish.
9. Michigan
Jul 25, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Michigan Wolverines head coach Sherrone Moore speaks to the media during the Big 10 football media day at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports It’s no surprise the reigning national champions were facing some considerable roster turnover heading into 2024 — not the least of which was replacing head coach Jim Harbaugh. Losing in a top 10 matchup to fellow 2023 College Football Playoff team Texas might not have been so surprising, given all the Longhorns returned for 2024.
However, the Wolverines endured their worst defensive performance since the 2022 season—Michigan’s Fiesta Bowl loss to TCU—en route to a 31-12 defeat that was more lopsided than the final score. Michigan can’t afford another loss if the Big Ten title and College Football Playoff remain the goal.
8. Arkansas
Sep 7, 2024; Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks defensive back Jaheim Singletary (15) makes an interception over Oklahoma State Cowboys wide receiver Rashod Owens (10) during the second quarter at Boone Pickens Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images Coming off of a 4-8 finish, Sam Pittman needed a bounceback to at least bowl-eligible status in 2024. The Razorbacks face one of the nastiest schedules in college football, making six wins a difficult benchmark to reach.
Dropping a two-overtime decision on the road to a top 20-ranked opponent, which happened to Arkansas in Week 2, isn’t problematic in a vacuum.
But with the Razorbacks squandering a two-touchdown lead against the Cowboys, they let a critical chance slip through their fingertips. Dead ahead is a stretch of perilous games, including Auburn on the road, Texas A&M on a neutral field, and Tennessee before Arkansas draws its bye.
Those three games likely make or break Arkansas’ season — and Pittman’s future in Fayetteville.
7. Notre Dame
Aug 31, 2024; College Station, Texas, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Riley Leonard (13) attempts to pass the ball during the first quarter against the Texas A&M Aggies at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images Fighting Irish coach Marcus Freeman described Notre Dame’s first two weeks as “from the highest of highs to the lowest of lows” following a 16-14 loss at home to Northern Illinois. The stunning defeat came on the heels of a 23-13 win at Texas A&M.
Both games offer cause for concern in South Bend.
With quarterback Riley Leonard yet to throw a touchdown pass, he might be on the hot seat immediately.
What’s more, Notre Dame’s upcoming schedule lacks marquee-win opportunities for the Irish’s Playoff resume — a resume already in serious trouble after losing to the MAC visitors from DeKalb.
6. Texas A&M
Sep 7, 2024; College Station, Texas, USA; Texas A&M Aggies running back Le’Veon Moss (8) scores a touchdown against the McNeese State Cowboys during the first quarter at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Dustin Safranek-Imagn Images Playing a difficult schedule places a premium on home games.
The Aggies had home-field advantage and the support of the 12th Man but lost to Notre Dame in the opener.
A&M opens SEC play in Week 3, visiting a desperate Florida team that needs to make good on its home field. This opening stretch is a reflection of the Aggies’ schedule in general, with the more beatable opponents like UF, South Carolina and Auburn on the road and the marquee opponents — Missouri, LSU and Texas — at Kyle Field.
5. Auburn
Jul 21, 2022; Atlanta, GA, USA; The Auburn Tigers helmet on the stage during SEC Media Days at the College Football Hall of Fame. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports Auburn’s controversial hire of Hugh Freeze was made with the hope that he could rejuvenate a long-struggling offense. Before his scandalous exit from Ole Miss, Freeze oversaw the quick emergence of a once-moribund program into an offensive juggernaut that helped change the complexion of the SEC last decade.
The Tigers averaged 26.2 points per game in 2023 but scored 21 points or fewer against seven power-conference opponents. That trend of stacking up points against overmatched opponents then struggling against a tougher defense continued: Auburn racked up 73 points against Alabama A&M, only to be stymied for 14 points in a loss Week 2 vs. Cal.
4. NC State
Sep 7, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack quarterback Grayson McCall (2) runs with the football as Tennessee Volunteers defensive lineman Tyre West (42) and defensive lineman Caleb Herring (31) defend during the second half at the Dukes Mayo Classic at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images The Wolfpack struggled, putting away Western Carolina — a Southern Conference opponent that lost the next week to Campbell—in the opener. NC State’s surprising defensive issues against the Catamounts paled in comparison to a rough showing against Tennessee last week.
The Wolfpack gave up 460 yards in the 51-10 loss, when the Vols averaged 6.9 yards per play. While NC State is unlikely to see an offense as prolific as Tennessee’s the rest of the way, the schedule doesn’t let up: Clemson and suddenly relevant Northern Illinois—yes, the Huskies will be riled up to beat NIU’s former coach, Dave Doeren—loom at the end of September.
3. Florida
Aug 31, 2024; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators quarterback DJ Lagway (2) runs with the ball against the Miami Hurricanes during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images A pivotal year for the Florida program under coach Billy Napier opened with a resounding thud. The Gators’ 41-17 loss in Week 1 to Miami may have made Napier’s fate inevitable.
However, the upcoming five-game stretch is the difference between the 2024 season offering some promise or being a historically rotten one in Gainesville.
The Gators draw Texas A&M at home in Week 3, UCF for a non-conference date with in-state bragging rights on the line, and travel to Mississippi State in between. Anything worse than 2-1 likely relegates Florida to another sub-.500 finish.
2. Colorado
Nov 11, 2023; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes quarterback Shedeur Sanders (2) at the line of scrimmage in the first half against the Arizona Wildcats at Folsom Field. credits: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports A 28-10 loss at Nebraska in Week 2 that was more lopsided than the final score suggests dropped Colorado’s record to 2-9 since last year’s 3-0 start and Top 25 ranking. The hype that initially surrounded Deion Sanders’ hire as head coach and subsequent undefeated start in 2023 has turned to a palpable malaise.
A program with just one above-.500 finish in each full season over the last 18 years would welcome simply getting to a bowl game. The same issues that plagued the Buffs in Sanders’ first season, a 4-8 campaign, remain evident in Year 2. And if CU cannot get over the hump with potential first-round draftees like Sheduer Sanders and Travis Hunter, the program’s long-term outlook is grim.
1. Florida State
The Seminoles entered the danger zone nine months ago when their exclusion from the College Football Playoff set off a chain of misfortune. A 60-point loss to Georgia in the Orange Bowl preceded considerable roster changes. The new-look lineup is 0-2 after anemic offensive performances against Georgia Tech in Week 0 and Boston College in Week 1.
Compounding Florida State’s first two losses is that both came in conference games. The Seminoles have no margin for error in the ACC.
There is no sign of life from FSU’s anemic offense. Transfer quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei is 40-of-69 passing for 465 yards; no ballcarrier has 50 rushing yards in eight quarters of football and replacement options offer little optimism.
