This story was originally published by Dead Spin
Pete Alonso will have to navigate a new format along with a crop of rising superstars to claim a record-tying third Home Run Derby title on Monday night.
Ken Griffey Jr. is the only player to accomplish the feat Alonso is chasing at Globe Life Field on Monday night.
HOME RUN DERBY ODDS*
Pete Alonso, Mets (+320)
Marcell Ozuna, Braves (+425)
Bobby Witt Jr., Royals (+425)
Gunnar Henderson, Orioles (+475)
Adolis Garcia, Rangers (+550)
Teoscar Hernandez, Dodgers (+1000)
Jose Ramirez, Guardians (+1300)
Alec Bohm, Phillies (+1700)
*DraftKings
FORMAT
The Derby is undergoing its biggest format change since 2015, when Major League Baseball did away with the outs system in favor of a timed competition.
Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman failed to make it out of the first round despite clobbering 27 homers last year, prompting MLB to shift the bracket-style system to begin with the semifinals. All eight participants will compete in the same pool in the first round. The top four homer totals advance. If players are tied after the first round, the tiebreaker will be the player with the longest home run of the round.
Another significant change: players can see a maximum of 40 pitches during their three-minute clock for the first round and the semifinals. The finals will be two minutes long or 27 pitches, whichever comes first.
The untimed bonus period provides unlimited additional pitches until three outs are reached. An additional out can be earned by hitting a home run of at least 425 feet.
THE FAVORITE
Alonso lost last year to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is not defending his title on Monday night. Alonso leads the way at DraftKings with 33 percent of the money and 27 percent of the total bets backing him to win a third Derby crown.
The Mets slugger is also backed by the most money to make the final with 28 percent at +135 odds and the most money to reach the semifinals with 29 percent at -210.
Alonso is also the favorite at BetRivers, where he leads the field with 27.2 percent of the money backing him at slightly shorter +300 odds.
PROP PICKS
Henderson hit the break with 28 home runs, most of any player in the Derby field. The public expects him to start fast on Monday night, backing him at DraftKings with 76 percent of the money at +450 to club the most homers in the first round.
However, it’s another rising superstar who has been supported the heaviest to slug to longest homer of the night. That would be Witt Jr., who has drawn 43 percent of the money, with the next closest being Garcia with 16 percent at +1000.
The son of former Ranger Bobby Witt grew up in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, attending Colleyville Heritage High School. He’ll have plenty of motivation to put on a show in front of his hometown fans.
Henderson and Witt Jr. are also the most popular tandem to face each other in the finals, drawing 15 percent of the money and 10 percent of the bets. That tops a potential final putting Henderson against Alonso, which has been backed by 14 percent of the money but does top the options with 16 percent of the total bets.
The Over/Under for the total number of homers hit on Monday night is 269.5, with the Over backed by 86 percent of the money.
KEY STAT
Garcia has hit 67 home runs in his career at Globe Life Field, the most all-time since the ballpark opened in 2020. The most memorable to date was his walk-off blast to lift the Rangers past the D-backs in Game 1 of the 2023 World Series.
SLEEPERS
Marcell Ozuna: It’s his first derby but he’s one of the game’s best power hitters. Outside of Shohei Ohtani (66) and Aaron Judge (65), no player has hit more home runs (64) than Ozuna since May 1, 2023.
Alec Bohm: Bohm has the fewest home runs (11) of any competitor in the field, so he’s naturally a sleeper. Bohm’s bat has more pop in it, though. As Phillies manager Rob Thomson told MLB.com: “I know how far he can hit a ball. It hasn’t shown up over the course of a season, but it will.”
FAST FACT
Globe Life Field was the site of Aaron Judge’s record-breaking 62nd home run to set the single-season American League record on Oct. 4, 2022 at Globe Life Field.
The longest home run in the stadium’s young history is 472 feet. Oakland’s Seth Brown reached the distance on July 10, 2021 followed by the Angels’ Mike Trout on April 14, 2022.
–Field Level Media
