This story was originally published by Dead Spin
With NFL preseason now underway and the Olympics ending, there’s about to be much more action available for bettors. MLB games now hold more meaning, soccer is starting across the pond, and college football’s making its return in two weeks.
There’s still a couple more weeks until the football games count for real, but the dog days of summer are almost done. Here are our best bets for August 11.
Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts play well in the preseason at Lucas Oil Stadium. Ever since the infamous Andrew Luck retirement game in 2019, Indy is 3-1 at home in preseason, and the loss came by a point to the Lions. More importantly, the Colts have better depth at the quarterback position. The jury is still out on Anthony Richardson, but he’s only going to play a series or two before he gives way to Joe Flacco and Sam Ehlinger.
Flacco is a proven performer, while Ehlinger at least has the talent to belong on an NFL roster. Ehlinger should have little issue moving the ball against the Broncos’ third-stringers during the second half. Contrast that with Denver, where Jarrett Stidham has done little during his time as a pro. The Broncos do have a promising rookie in Bo Nix, but third option Zach Wilson looks like one of the biggest busts in NFL history. Indianapolis should emerge victorious.
Colts -1.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sean McVay isn’t quite the Gomez Addams of NFL preseason football (he has won a few preseason games in his time in Los Angeles), but he’s not too far off. McVay is staunchly against playing anyone who might help the Rams when the games count during the preseason. Since the NFL went to a 17-game schedule, he’s become even more committed to keeping his guys out of the preseason.
As a result, the Rams usually don’t just lose in the preseason; they often get annihilated. Last year was a perfect example. Los Angeles played Denver, Las Vegas and the Chargers in the preseason and lost all of them by at least 17 points. The Rams have lost five consecutive preseason games, and that looks unlikely to change soon.
Dallas is the ideal team to back in this year’s preseason because the Cowboys have a quarterback who’s playing for a job. Trey Lance finds his career at a crossroads after injuries and Brock Purdy derailed him in San Francisco. He’s now on his second team and unlikely to see the field in the regular season in 2024 unless something happens to Dak Prescott. So Lance has to use the preseason to convince someone he can be their long-term answer at quarterback, whether that’s the Cowboys or another team.Â
The Cowboys also have every incentive to let Lance let it fly. They’re locked in a contract dispute with Prescott, and they’d have much more leverage if they believe they could trust Lance in a pinch. That should lead Dallas to blast the Rams’ reserves.
Cowboys -4 (-110 at BetMGM)
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Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins
Cleveland badly needed a win on Saturday against Minnesota, and it got it. The Guardians now have an opportunity to emerge from this weekend unscathed and holding a 3.5-game edge on the Twins, and Tanner Bibee gives them a great chance to do that.
Bibee has allowed just three runs over his past 17.2 innings of work, and the Guardians put all three of his starts in the win column. He’s also pitched very well against Minnesota, holding the Twins to just two earned runs over 12.1 innings in 2024. In his past five starts against the Twins, he hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs.
Minnesota counters with David Festa, who has pitched better since being recalled from Triple-A Saint Paul. But with Bibee likely to pitch five to six strong innings, the Twins will have to get something off of Cleveland’s rock-solid bullpen to win. That’s a pretty tall order.
Guardians Moneyline (-113, BetRivers)
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