Bet the OVER on These College Football Win Totals Before 2024 Season | Deadspin.com

In a college football landscape undergoing widespread change, a trio of teams under new leadership are fitting candidates to hit the over on their 2024 win totals. 

These three teams, each under a first-year head coach, have the pieces to reach the over and do so at favorable odds.

Duke, 5.5 wins +150 (BetMGM)

A remarkable tidbit contrasting the success of Duke basketball with the inconsistency of Duke football: with Manny Diaz taking over in 2024, the gridiron Blue Devils have had more head coaches since 2021 than the hardwood Blue Devils have had since 1980.

Mike Elko’s tour before jumping to Texas A&M was brief but successful, producing 17 combined wins in 2022 and 2023. Diaz aims for just the second run of three straight eight-plus-win campaigns ever in Durham. Oddsmakers don’t like his chances: FanDuel and DraftKings each offer Duke at +140 to eclipse 5.5 wins, and BetMGM offers +150. Caesars Sportsbook offers +115 for over five wins.

But Diaz, a defensive-minded coach who coordinated Penn State’s 13.5-point per game yield in 2023, inherits a Duke defense that gave up only 19 points per game last season. Linebacker Tre Freeman returns after racking up 106 tackles a season ago, and he has FCS All-American Ozzie Nicholas joining him in the corps from Princeton. Cornerback Chandler Rivers and safety Terry Moore have All-ACC potential in the secondary.

A Week 2 visit to Northwestern could be the difference in Duke hosting rival North Carolina on Sept. 28 with a chance to go to 5-0 heading into the meat of the conference schedule.

James Madison, 8.5 wins, +135 (BetMGM)

In just its second season of FBS competition, James Madison commanded the national spotlight with its 10-0 start in 2023. While they fell short of a perfect regular season that would have shaken up the conversation around divisional transition rules, the Dukes still reached 11 wins for the fifth time since 2016.

More importantly, the longtime Football Championship Subdivision powerhouse program proved its brand of football translates to the FBS and Sun Belt Conference. First-year Dukes coach Bob Chesney gets a similar opportunity coming from Holy Cross.

Chesney coached the Crusaders to four consecutive playoff appearances. In the last two seasons, Holy Cross put up around 37 points per game—in line with JMU’s 34.1 point per game average a season ago.

Chesney also continues at least one area in which JMU thrived under Cignetti: finding veteran playmakers through the transfer portal.

A bevy of experienced newcomers fill out the Dukes roster, including Holy Cross All-American linebacker Jacob Dobbs and former Washington Huskies starting quarterback Dylan Morris. 

The faces may be new, but the results should be familiar. Expect the Dukes to be competing for a Sun Belt championship and the double-digit-win threshold when they close the regular season at Appalachian State and vs. Marshall. 

Washington, 6.5 wins +112 (BetRivers)

Huskies first-year head coach Jedd Fisch inherited what was, at the time of his hire to Arizona, arguably the worst team in a power conference. 

By Year 3, the well-traveled Fisch led the Wildcats to one of the best seasons in program history. Arizona was 11-3 with an Alamo Bowl win over Oklahoma last season. 

Taking over the post Kalen DeBoer vacated to replace Nick Saban at Alabama, Fisch is the man in charge of 2024 College Football Playoff national runner-up Washington. Fisch steps into a significantly more favorable position in Year 1 than at his last gig, even with the big-name departures from the 2023 Huskies roster. A few key transfers followed Fisch and his staff from Tucson to Seattle, including two-way run-and-receiving threat Jonah Coleman at running back. 

Washington’s marquee transfer arrives from SEC Country: Quarterback Will Rogers, a four-year starter at Mississippi State, arrived in Montlake with 12,315 passing yards and 94 touchdowns on his resume. Rogers could immediately establish himself as one of the Big Ten’s premier quarterbacks if Fisch and passing game coordinator Jimmie Dougherty work the same magic they used at Arizona with Noah Fifita last season. 

Washington’s highest hurdle to reaching seven or more wins is a conference change. 

The Big Ten did UW no favors in scheduling a cross-country trek to Rutgers on a short turnaround, a visit to conference-title dark horse Iowa one week after a national championship rematch with Michigan, and a road trip to Penn State.

The first month is more than manageable. 

A sweep of the non-conference slate, which includes rival Washington State, followed by wins over Northwestern and Rutgers to kick off Big Ten play should have over bettors feeling confident in October.