This story was originally published by Dead Spin
Forget “I love you.”
The three words every football fan desires to hear after opening weekend are really “Monday Night Football.”
Yes, MNF returns tonight with the New York Jets and Aaron Rodgers (hopefully for more than four plays) visiting the Super Bowl loser 49ers.
Hopefully you East Coast fantasy football folks aren’t in need of too many points tonight, as I know I hate having to stay up late just waiting for that needed touchdown, only for your guy to then subsequently fumble away your chances of going 1-0.
Anyway, I’m here to look at the REAL gambling side of things tonight…
FIRST TOUCHDOWN
Rodgers has been waiting a year to prove his middle-aged arm can still do what it used to during his 18 seasons in Green Bay.
Remember though, he wasn’t used much at all in his first three years, so he’ll probably tell you his mileage numbers are just a conspiracy theory and that he’s got plenty of life left.
The skeptics, on the other hand, may say his 2020-21 seasons, when he racked up 85 touchdowns and only nine interceptions, were a freak occurrence, as he was very average the two years before that spell and in 2022, but overall, not many will doubt this guy when healthy.
One thing you can’t doubt is he’s loved his number one receiver over the years, and that guy for the Jets is the very capable Garrett Wilson, who has two 1,000-yard seasons to open his NFL career with the likes of Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian… well, you get the point.
I think Rodgers will be looking to find Wilson early and often tonight, so I’ll definitely be putting a few bucks on him at these odds.
Garrett Wilson first touchdown (+1000 on DraftKings)
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SPREAD PICK
With their quarterback situation in 2023, it’s difficult to take too much from the 7-10 campaign the Jets put together other than their quality defense that ranked high in many categories, despite being on the field for far too many minutes.
While they did allow more than 30 points four times from Week 11 onwards as an exhausted unit, the Jets D still managed to rank No. 1 in the NFL in yards per play allowed.
Yes, the 49ers ranked as the number two offense last season, but WR Brandon Aiyuk isn’t expected to take a full play load tonight, and Christian McCaffrey will face plenty of stacked boxes early in the contest.
The fact the over/under is 43 tells me the bookies expect the Jets to keep this one close. 24-21 either way, perhaps?
One more stat: the 49ers were only 5-8 ATS as 4-point favorites or more last season.
Jets +4 (-108 on DraftKings)
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PLAYER PROP
McCaffrey is gonna get his, as the kids say.
There’s a reason he was the number one draft pick in every fantasy league, even though every opponent knows what he’s capable of.
The Jets will certainly try to limit the damage the former Stanford legend inflicts on them, but I expect he’ll still manage to find the end zone and grab enough receiving yards to make this little parlay worth a look.
Christian McCaffrey anytime touchdown and over 40 receiving yards (+128 on DraftKings)
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