This story was originally published by Dead Spin
College football’s two marquee matchups in Week 4 feature home underdogs. Reigning national champion Michigan is as high as +6 at BetMGM and as low as +5 at BetESPN and DraftKnights for its showdown with USC.
Oklahoma, hosting Tennessee in the Sooners’ first conference game as a member of the SEC, is either a +6.5 or +7 underdog depending on the book.
Both the Wolverines and Sooners are attractive picks, playing at home against opponents built around potent offenses. Defense travels, as the cliche goes, but does the same apply to scoring? And that’s a particularly pertinent question against quality defenses, which both Michigan and Oklahoma boast.
For the two biggest games of Week 4, go with the home underdog in the Big Ten. Michigan looked flawed in its first three outings, albeit on offense. The Wolverines defense behind All-American lineman Mason Graham is still one of the most physical in the country and should give USC an appropriate welcome to the Big Ten.
Even if USC wins, Michigan can play the Trojans within the six-point spread. Oklahoma may find sledding much choppier against Tennessee.
The Sooners were markedly better offensively in Week 3 vs. Tulane. A week prior to facing Houston, OU looked shaky and squeaked by in a 16-12 win. Jackson Arnold’s mobility can make up for some deficiencies, but the Sooners will need an effective passing attack to keep pace with Tennessee.
As good as the Oklahoma defense has been, holding each of its three opponents to fewer than 20 points, the Vols offense is among the most versatile the Sooners will see in 2024. Tennessee’s size at receiver in particular, with Dont’e Thornton Jr. and Bru McCoy, creates match-up problems. The variety of options UT has in the run game should also be enough to create scoring opportunities against a tough Sooners defense.
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LSU -23.5 vs. UCLA (FanDuel)
There are some holdovers from the 2021 LSU team that UCLA beat in Rose Bowl Stadium: safety Major Burns, running backs John Emery Jr. and Josh Williams, defensive end Sai’vion Jones, among them. Thus, some payback may be in order.
But more significantly, this LSU is simply much better than UCLA. New Bruins head coach DeShaun Foster retaining Ikaika Malloe as defensive coordinator provided UCLA a solid pillar to build around in its move to the Big Ten, and the Bruins have playmakers on that side of the ball. Linebacker Kain Modrano appears to have settled in nicely as the premier edge-rush threat UCLA lost with All-American Laiatu Latu gone to the NFL.
However, a complete absence of offensive pop nearly cost the Bruins in Week 1 at Hawaii; it contributed to a blowout loss in Week 2 to Indiana. LSU’s defense has been shaky at times early into 2024, but should be able to impose its will physically on overmatched UCLA early en route to the Tigers’ most lopsided win of the season to date.
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Arizona State RB Cameron Skattebo +230 to Rush for 120-Plus Yards (DraftKings)
A monster 262-yard performance from running back Cameron Skattebo against Mississippi State carried Arizona State in Week 2. The hard-charging ball carrier, who has 57 rushes the last two games, figures to again be the focal point of the Sun Devils offense when they visit Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders defense has had its difficulties stopping the run, giving up four touchdowns to both Abilene Christian and Washington State. All three Texas Tech opponents have broken the century mark, and with Washington State’s 6.5 setting the pace, the Red Raiders are giving up 4.8 yards per carry.
Should Skattebo hit that mark—4.8 yards per run — on 25 carries, he’ll go for exactly 120 yards. There’s value in Skattebo reaching 100 (+110) and 110 (+160) or more yards, but with as vital as the running back has shown he can be to the Sun Devils in critical moments, the 120-plus-yard wager may prove worth the risk.
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