This story was originally published by Dead Spin
Now that you’ve had your fair share of burgers and dogs for the Fourth of July, it’s time to kick back and spend Friday night sizing up a full plate of baseball.
After all, it is America’s pastime, and since we’re still feeling patriotic, it’s only right that all three of Friday’s plays come from the diamond.
From a heated rivalry to a game that features one of the best prospects to take the mound in years, we’ve got picks all across the board that should make recovering from the holiday just a little bit easier.
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
Red Sox-Yankees on a Friday night? Does it get better than this?
New York has been going through the ringer lately, most recently getting swept by the Cincinnati Reds in a three-game set to fall to 4-13 since June 15. Two of the losses during that rut have come against Boston.
Yankees slugger Aaron Judge went 3-for-4 in the series opener against Cincinnati, but he failed to record a hit in seven at-bats over the next two games.
Still, Judge leads the majors with 32 home runs on the season, and we’re banking on him to hit No. 33 when he goes up against Red Sox starter Tanner Houck. Judge has seen Houck do well in his career (3-for-9), but he has yet to leave the ballpark against the right-hander.
And if Judge decides to send a ball over the wall against someone else? Well, that works too.
The pick: Aaron Judge over 0.5 home runs, +215 (DraftKings)
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St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Our good friend Patrick Corbin will get the nod for Washington, someone who has become ever so reliable when it comes to betting against him.
Corbin was featured in our best bets piece on Sunday, when the left-hander went up against the Rays and gave up four runs on eight hits in six innings. We had Tampa Bay’s team total at over 4.5 runs, and the Rays ended up coming through for us in a 5-0 victory.
It’s now been nearly two months since Corbin picked up a win, doing so on May 10 against Boston, and he is 0-4 with a 5.40 ERA over his past eight starts.
If Nationals manager Dave Martinez is going to keep handing Corbin the ball every five days, we’re going to keep smashing opposing teams’ team totals until it fails us.
The pick: Cardinals team total over 4.5 runs, -140 (DraftKings)
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New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates
It’s pretty safe to say that Pittsburgh rookie Paul Skenes has lived up to the hype.
Skenes, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft, has racked up 70 strikeouts in 52 1/3 innings over the first nine starts of his big-league career. He has fanned at least eight in five of his past six outings, punching out seven in the other.
Now Skenes will get a look at the Mets, whose hitters have combined for 62 strikeouts over the past six games. New York has gone 2-4 in that span and most recently mustered just one hit in a 1-0 loss to the Nationals on Sunday.
Feel free to play this one safe and go with Skenes’ actual line of over 7.5 strikeouts, but if there’s any situation where you should go big or go home, it’s this one.
The pick: Paul Skenes alternate strikeouts thrown 10+, +255 (DraftKings)
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