This story was originally published by Dead Spin
Leaves haven’t started to change color, pumpkin pie is nowhere to be found in your local grocery store’s bakery section, and the guy you haven’t seen since high school has yet to text you about his fantasy football league seeking one more player.
But don’t be fooled: The NFL season is right around the corner.
It’s easy to put football on the back burner during the dog days of summer. However, the NFL preseason kicks off on Aug. 8, with Week 1 of the regular season coming less than a month later.
There’s no better time to start sifting through some futures bets, and we’re here to bring you our top three team totals that you should be hammering the over on.
Houston Texans
C.J. Stroud quickly solidified himself as the best quarterback in last year’s draft class, doing so with Devin Singletary as the Texans’ leading rusher and Nico Collins as his favorite target.
Houston exceeded expectations by going 10-7 to lock down its first playoff berth since the 2019 campaign, and the front office showed that it was committed to building a true contender this offseason.
The Texans went out and got Stefon Diggs, sending a 2025 second-round draft pick to the Buffalo Bills in exchange for the star wideout. Houston also dealt a seventh-round pick in this year’s draft to the Cincinnati Bengals to acquire running back Joe Mixon, a 1,000-yard rusher in two of the past three seasons.
Collins is now the No. 2 option, with Tank Dell serving as the No. 3 to make up what should be an outstanding receiving corps.
This offense is about to be insane.
If the Texans’ defense holds teams under 21-27 points per game, which should be no problem under coach DeMeco Ryans and defensive coordinator Matt Burke, Houston will easily surpass its win total from 2023.
The pick: OVER 9.5 wins, -150 (FanDuel)
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New England Patriots
Few things found a way to ruin a perfectly good Sunday like Patriots football did a season ago.
New England was tied with the Carolina Panthers for the fewest points per game (13.9) last year, spelling the end of longtime coach Bill Belichick’s tenure.
Jerod Mayo, a former Patriots linebacker, stepped in as Belichick’s successor, and New England also made changes under center, shipping Mac Jones to Jacksonville, signing veteran Jacoby Brissett, and selecting Drake Maye with the third overall pick in the draft.
There’s a renewed sense of optimism in Foxborough, Mass. Even with all of last season’s issues, the Patriots still managed to somehow win four games, so why can’t they win just one more this time around?
The pick: Over 4.5 wins, -150 (FanDuel)
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Cleveland Browns
Most AFC North bettors will be eyeing the Baltimore Ravens’ win total, but the real value lies with Cleveland’s.
It’s hard to name a team that responded to adversity better than the Browns, who saw five different quarterbacks draw a start last season while the team was simultaneously dealing with the absence of star running back Nick Chubb.
Chubb was limited to two games because of a gruesome knee injury.
No defense in the league held opponents to fewer yards per game (270.2) in 2023, and Myles Garrett was named Defensive Player of the Year after racking up 14 sacks, four forced fumbles and 30 quarterback hits.
There should be more stability in Cleveland this season, making the over on the Browns’ win total too good to pass up following an 11-win campaign.
The pick: Over 8.5 wins, -138 (FanDuel)
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