This story was originally published by Dead Spin
Jessica Pegula and Emma Navarro will each play in their first career Grand Slam semifinal matches at the U.S. Open on Thursday.
While one is favored to advance to Saturday’s women’s final, it would take a major upset to see an all-American matchup for the title at Flushing Meadows.
The 13th-seeded Navarro began 2024 by being seeded in a Grand Slam event for the first time at the Australian Open. After reaching the third round for the first time, she established a new career best by advancing to the fourth round at the French Open, where she fell to Aryna Sabalenka.
No. 2 seed Sabalenka will again be across the net when Navarro takes the court for Thursday’s first semifinal scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. Sabalenka, 26, reached the U.S. Open final last year and the hard-hitting Belarusian is the two-time reigning Australian Open champion.
Navarro, 23, will be in new territory on Thursday night, but hardly against an unknown opponent. In addition to the meeting at Roland Garros, Navarro scored the biggest win of her career against Sabalenka at Indian Wells to reach her first WTA 1000 quarterfinal.
That victory launched Navarro into the top-20 for the first time, but she’s a +320 underdog by DraftKings to replicate the feat on Thursday. Sabalenka, the massive -425 favorite, has dropped only one set en route to the semifinals. She has dropped only nine total games in winning her past two matches in straight sets over No. 7 seed Qinwen Zheng and No. 33 Elise Mertens.
Sabalenka, who is the first woman since Serena Williams to reach four consecutive U.S. Open semifinals, owns the best active hard-court winning percentage at .814 (48-11).
“If you get to the top-5 level, everyone will take you as a favorite,” Sabalenka said after her quarterfinal victory over the Olympic gold medalist Zheng. “But as I always say, it’s not about being favorite, it’s about how hard you’re ready to fight for it.
“But I’m really glad they take me as a favorite, and I’ll do my very best to hold this beautiful trophy.”
Sportsbooks will no doubt be pulling for a Navarro victory. That includes BetMGM, where Sabalenka opened as the +450 favorite and remains the biggest liability in the women’s draw, having been backed by 40.5 percent of all money wagered on the women’s champion. Meanwhile, Navarro began the tournament as a +4000 longshot and is now the book’s second-biggest liability.
RED-HOT PEGULA FAVORED
Thursday’s second semifinal will feature No. 6 seed Jessica Pegula against unranked Karolina Muchova.
Pegula reached her first career Grand Slam semifinal at the age of 30 by scoring a huge upset over No. 1 Iga Swiatek on Wednesday. It snapped a streak of six consecutive losses in Grand Slam semifinals, and Pegula is the -165 favorite at DraftKings to reach her first career major final.
Swiatek marked the fifth consecutive straight-sets victory for Pegula, whose biggest challenge at this year’s tournament to date was a first-set tiebreaker against Sofia Kenin in the second round.
Muchova, a 28-year-old from the Czech Republic, has been equally as dominating. Her 6-1, 6-4 thumping of No. 22 seed Beatriz Haddad Maia in the quarterfinals was Muchova’s fifth consecutive straight-sets victory as well.
This is Muchova’s second straight trip to the U.S. Open semifinals, and she also reached the finals of the French Open. However, she has only one career singles title on her WTA resume, which came at the 2019 Korea Open.
Pegula has six career titles, and her win over Swiatek provided a long-awaited marquee victory in a Grand Slam event.
“I just kept losing but to great players,” Pegula said after the match. “I know everyone keeps asking me about it, I just didn’t know what else to do. I just needed to get there again and win the match.
“Finally, I’m able to say I’m a semifinalist.”
Pegula and Muchova have squared off just once, when Pegula prevailed 5-7, 6-4, 6-2 in the second round at Cincinnati last month. Pegula’s loss in the finals of that event is the only one she has dropped in her past 15 matches.
Whatever the matchup in the finals proves to be, a first-time U.S. Open champion will be crowned on Saturday.
Sabalenka is the only major champion among the quartet, and she’s the -155 favorite at DraftKings to claim her third Grand Slam title.
U.S. WOMEN’S OPEN TITLE ODDS
Aryna Sabalenka (-155)
Jessica Pegula (+300)
Karolina Muchova (+500)
Emma Navarro (+700)
–Field Level Media
