Fantasy Football Injured Players and Contract Holdouts: Who to Draft, Who To Avoid | Deadspin.com

The conservative approach to this year’s fantasy football draft would begin with passing on Christian McCaffrey with the first overall pick because of his calf injury.

Then you’d let someone else deal with the contract disputes of CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase and Brandon Aiyuk, Jahmyr Gibbs’ hamstring, Rashee Rice’s pending suspension and the wounded knees of Puka Nacua, Nick Chubb and DeAndre Hopkins. 

And you’d wind up in last place.

Not that injuries and holdouts don’t sometimes impact fantasy seasons. It’s just that most often, they don’t.

Here’s an attempt to distinguish between the two as your 2024 draft lists undergo a final polishing:

Justin Herbert, Chargers

He missed most of training camp with a plantar fascia issue in his right foot, but frankly, his injury should have been labeled “new coach syndrome.” Jim Harbaugh’s playbook and roster makeover render Herbert undraftable, whether he’s limping or not. 

J.J. McCarthy, Vikings

He’s out for the season after tearing the meniscus in his knee, which takes down Jordan Addison with him. Justin Jefferson has proven he’s capable of stardom even when handcuffed by the likes of Sam Darnold, but he’s no longer a Top 5 pick.

Christian McCaffrey, 49ers

The 2023 Fantasy MVP has had injuries in the past, so his strained right calf should at least prompt those who rightfully keep him atop their draft board to invest a 10th-round pick in his backup, Jordan Mason. He’s a plug-and-play should McCaffrey ever need time off.

Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions

Gibbs’ hamstring “injury” might be considered much ado about nothing if not for the conservative approach coach Dan Campbell likely will take. Surrounded by so many other explosive weapons, it would be no surprise if Gibbs saw a reduction in touches—enough to let someone else take him in Round 2.

Nick Chubb, Browns

Some see Chubb as this year’s Jonathan Taylor, a potential difference-maker in the second half of the season after warming the fantasy bench in the first half. The differences are: 1) Chubb is no Jonathan Taylor; and 2) Taylor missed seven games last season due to a holdout and a broken thumb, whereas Chubb had knee surgery. He will not be a fantasy factor this season.

Jaylen Warren, Steelers

You want no part of the Warren/Najee Harris timeshare unless one gets hurt, and that already has happened. Warren’s hamstring injury isn’t season-threatening, but it puts Harris in the driver’s seat for a fantasy-friendly opener at Atlanta. At some point (Round 10? ), even a one- or two-week wonder is worthy of a roster spot.

Jonathon Brooks, Panthers

He’s still recovering from a serious knee injury suffered in a college game last November, and the best-case scenario has him in near-top form in the second half of the NFL season. But these are the woeful Panthers, and there’s no reason to rush Brooks back (Carolina still has its first-round pick next year), so drafting him looks like a waste of a roster spot.

CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys

In a do-or-die season for coach and quarterback, Jerry Jones isn’t going to let a few bucks swing the pendulum. Rest assured, Lamb will be on the receiving end of the Cowboys’ first—and probably last—passes of the upcoming season despite his ongoing holdout, keeping him in the conversation for a Top 3 fantasy pick.

Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals

Nobody seems concerned about Chase’s holdout with two years remaining on his deal, so neither am I. If you want to drop him one spot in the first round (taking Amon-Ra St. Brown at No. 6 instead of Chase), you have my blessing. 

Puka Nacua, Rams

Like others on this list, Nacua’s issue isn’t so much his exploded bursa sac but rather what’s changed in the meantime. If he held the upper hand over Cooper Kupp at the end of last season, that’s no longer the case at the start of this one. Those drafting Nacua before Kupp are making a mistake; those stealing Kupp in Round 4 are headed for big things.

Davante Adams, Raiders

Say this about Adams: He’s been a class act through two disappointing seasons for both him and the Raiders. But now he doesn’t want to play in preseason games, and all of a sudden a “minor” foot injury crops up when the new coach insists that all hands be on deck? If your cheat sheet has a Do Not Draft list, Adams should be right there next to Anthony Richardson.

Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers

Aiyuk will play somewhere this season, so his draft status remains pretty much the same, whether that’s in San Francisco, Washington or somewhere in between. What makes the resolution of his holdout important to fantasy drafters is its impact on Deebo Samuel, who becomes a borderline first-round pick should his sidekick land elsewhere. Stay tuned.

DeAndre Hopkins, Titans

He starts the season with two strikes against him: a sprained knee and competition on the other flank from Calvin Ridley. The former could turn Ridley into Will Levis’ No. 1 target in a high-scoring opener at Chicago, and should they start to click… If Ridley is still there for you in Round 5, start printing playoff tickets. 

Rashee Rice, Chiefs

The emerging wideout’s pending suspension isn’t making big news in Kansas City because nobody spreads the ball around better than Patrick Mahomes. That said, he seems to have taken a liking to Rice in a Tyreke Hill kind of way. Here’s hoping the suspension gets big headlines the day before your draft, Rice slips Taylor-like into the eighth round, and you draft yourself a difference-maker while others are considering backup quarterbacks.

T.J. Hockenson, Vikings

The biggest change in fantasy-draft approach this season comes at tight end, where Travis Kelce drops back toward the pack, having been caught by Sam LaPorta and now being challenged by a handful of others, including Trey McBride, Dalton Kincaid and Jake Ferguson. If only Hockenson weren’t still rehabbing a torn ACL and hadn’t lost his quarterback for the year. Do yourself a favor: Take Brock Bowers instead.