This story was originally published by Dead Spin
We’re well into September now, and the MLB playoff picture is taking shape with about a dozen games left in the regular season.
As the season winds down, we’re watching some key series, including the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, which comprise two of my three best bets for this slate.
Below are three bets I highly recommend considering for Sunday, Sept. 15. Let’s check it out:
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
The Red Sox and Yankees totals line is 8.5 runs, and I’m slamming the over here. In this one, the two pitchers on the mound are Kutter Crawford for the Red Sox and Carlos Rodon for the Yankees.
Crawford is 8-14 on the season with a 4.09 EA, while Rodon is 14-9 with a 4.15 ERA. However, these are two of the top three pitchers in HR/9, with Crawford leading the majors at 1.67 and Rodon at 1.59.
In his last start against Kansas City, Rodon allowed four runs (two earned) over six innings, but he also gave up two home runs.
For Crawford, he faced Baltimore and allowed three runs over 6 1/3 innings, including two home runs.
Each player has allowed four home runs over their last five starts, and Yankee Stadium isn’t exactly a challenging park to hit out of.
The Yankees rank second in the league in runs per game at 4.98, and the Red Sox are ninth at 4.75. So, we have two offenses that can score runs, each facing pitchers that give up the long ball.
Yeah, easy over bet here.
The pick: Over 8.5 Runs (-115) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Piggybacking off that synopsis of why I’m taking the over, I’m also taking Aaron Judge to hit a home run at +240.
Judge is hitting .321 this season with a .453 OBP and a .687 slugging percentage. He leads baseball with 52 home runs this season.
While he has just one over his last five games, he’ll take on Crawford here—not only a pitcher vulnerable to home runs but one that Judge has had a good history against.
In 19 at-bats, Judge is hitting . 316 against Crawford with three home runs.
This would mark another home run for Judge in this series after his go-ahead grand slam Friday, and I think he will send one out against the sport’s leader in most home runs per nine.
The pick: Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+240) at FanDuel
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies
Rounding out my best bets is the under for a Coors Field game. Considering the ballpark, that seems hard to believe, but 11.5 runs is simply too much to take a chance on.
Neither pitcher headed to the mound is exactly in Cy Young consideration, and the Cubs and Rockies are averaging 12.5 runs per game in this series, but I think we’ll escape this one just shy of the over.
Cal Quantrill is on the hill for the home team. He’s 8-9 with a 4.63 ERA, but he’s allowed three runs or fewer in three of his four August outings. Quantrill has a 4.26 ERA in 12 home starts.
Opposing Quantrill is Cubs pitcher Kyle Hendricks, who’s actually been pretty solid at Coors in his career. He’s 2-1 with a 3.64 ERA across 29 2/3 innings, allowing 12 earned runs and just two home runs.
I could see a finish at around nine or 10 runs, but I don’t think we hit a dozen here, considering Hendricks’ solid performances here and Quantrill keeping the runs down lately.
The pick: Under 11.5 Runs (-122) at FanDuel
