MLB Best Sports Betting Picks and Predictions for Thursday September 12, 2024 | Deadspin.com

We’re in the home stretch for the MLB season, with just over two weeks left in the season. The playoff race is a logjam in each league, with the Guardians and Yankees tied for the American League’s best record and the Phillies just one game ahead of the Dodgers in the National League.

Meanwhile, the wild card races still feature several teams jockeying for their slots. There’s also an interesting dichotomy to potentially watch out for: if the Royals and Twins both clinch their playoff spots and can’t catch Cleveland, there’s a possibility that they might engage in a tank-off to try to face the Astros in the wild card round as opposed to facing the second-place AL East team.

That’s a discussion Major League Baseball might need to have down the road. For now, there’s value to be had. Here are our best bets for September 12.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians

These teams just don’t play high-scoring games. Out of the past six meetings, four of them saw six runs or less, and the under has played 5-1 in those games. That includes their most recent meeting in July, when Ryan Pepiot went six innings and Tampa Bay shut out Cleveland in a 2-0 win.

Pepiot is back on the hill, and the book on him remains simple: if you don’t get the ball out of the park, you’re probably not going to scratch out more than a run or two. In his past four starts, he has allowed a concerning five home runs, but he only gave up eight earned runs in those starts. None of his past 10 starts have seen more than two earned runs score.

Cleveland isn’t hitting all that well anyway. The Guardians did plate 16 runs against the Double-A team masquerading as the Chicago White Sox, but they scored just five runs in Los Angeles against the Dodgers before that. In their past four games against MLB-level competition, the Guardians have scored just six runs. With Gavin Williams also pitching well, the under is the play.

Under 7.5 Runs (+100 at Caesars)

Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees

The exact opposite situation exists between the Red Sox and Yankees, where the over has cashed in four of the past five meetings. Cooper Criswell has pitched pretty well for Boston as of late, but he doesn’t last very long in his starts. The Red Sox seem to be trying to figure out whether he makes more sense as a starter or a reliever, but he hasn’t lasted past five innings in any of his past eight appearances.

And the Yankees love to get into the Boston bullpen, and for good reason. The Red Sox have the third-worst bullpen ERA in the American League, ahead of only Toronto and Chicago. Outside of one shutout loss, New York has torn into Boston’s bullpen in the past five matchups. In the other four games, the Yankees have scored 40 runs on their own.

The Red Sox are no slouches with the stick, scoring 26 runs in their past five games against New York. Even if the Yankees don’t go crazy against Boston relievers, the Red Sox should pull their weight at the plate and cash the over.

Over 9 Runs (+100 at BetMGM)

Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners

Texas has nothing to play for, at least not on paper. 

At 70-76, the Rangers will need a Herculean effort to avoid a losing season, and any playoff thoughts ended long ago.

But this game is different. It’s the long-awaited debut of Kumar Rocker. Before there was Paul Skenes, there was Rocker, a Vanderbilt phenom who was seemingly on his way to stardom before blowing out his elbow in Single-A ball and needing Tommy John surgery.

Rocker is back, and the Rangers want to see if they’ve got another ace on their hands. Usually, teams like Texas save a prospect’s debut for the home fans, but facing Seattle in Seattle is as ideal a debut as it gets for Rocker. Now 24, Rocker had an ERA under 2.00 in 10 games in the minors this season.

The Mariners can’t hit. Batting an MLB-worst .219 as a team. Throw in the pitcher-friendly design of T-Mobile Park, and you have all the ingredients for Rocker to have a big night. If he does, the Rangers should win.

Rangers moneyline (+120 at FanDuel)