This story was originally published by Dead Spin
With the MLB trade deadline in the rearview mirror, there’s no more guesswork with roster construction. What you see is what you get, for better or for worse. In the case of the Chicago White Sox, it’s for much, much worse.
The Pale Hose have lost a franchise-record 19 in a row, and things might not get any better anytime soon. To make matters worse, White Sox GM Chris Getz is being slammed for the weak return he netted in the deals he did make.
Not all of the criticism made sense (pitching is the one part of the 2024 White Sox that hasn’t been an embarrassment, and yet they were criticized for not landing a pitcher), but it’s clear that they’re basically a Triple-A team in MLB attire.
Elsewhere, San Diego strengthened its bullpen substantially, and Seattle got a badly-needed upgrade to its hitting. The Orioles didn’t sell the farm for a run at a title, but they made a few sensible moves to try to improve on last year’s playoff flameout. The Phillies also upgraded, while Atlanta seemed to give a reluctant surrender.
Based on the moves made, here are the values on the board post-deadline:
Baltimore Orioles to Win AL East, +125
With the Yankees and Orioles in a tie for first place, the money expects New York to emerge victorious over the final two months. That seems to be the public going with what it knows as opposed to being based on anything substantial. The Orioles were the stronger team last year and have been the stronger team all season.
New York has a slightly easier schedule by win percentage, but Baltimore hasn’t yet played Detroit and now gets six games with the Tigers after they weakened themselves to play for the future. The Orioles also have September and October experience right now, and they still have the memory of winning last year’s division title. They could easily lose this to the Yankees, but they should not be the underdog here.
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New York Mets to Make the Playoffs, +105
Arizona doesn’t look like it’s going to hold on. The Diamondbacks currently occupy the last playoff spot, but they haven’t yet faced Milwaukee and still have seven games against Los Angeles and San Diego. Cleveland, Philadelphia and surging Boston also land on the D-Backs’ schedule, which makes this a tricky ask for the defending NL champions.
Someone is going to slide into their spot, and the Mets look to be one of the most likely contenders. New York didn’t really make any major moves at the deadline, but they’d been playing good baseball and have a relatively easy schedule down the stretch. The one worry about the Mets is that they still have seven games to play with the Phillies, but Philadelphia hasn’t exactly played well since the All-Star break. Getting plus money on the Mets makes sense.
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NL East to Win the Pennant, +110
Getting half the field is always a good thing with a futures bet. The Phillies and Braves have their problems, but both are strong threats in the playoffs to make a run. If the Mets get in as well, that’s three out of six teams from the division to win the NLCS. Any one of them would cash the bet for you.
This bet’s far from certain because the Dodgers remain a strong threat and the Padres got substantially better. But Philadelphia has been the best team from top to bottom in the NL and swept the Dodgers before the break. If the Phillies get out of this funk, this bet holds incredible value.
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