This story was originally published by Dead Spin
It’s overreaction Tuesday, the end of the 16-game Week 1 schedule, which tends to send fans into September extremes.
Chiefs fans are celebrating; folks in Cincinnati are pounding the panic button. Dallas and Detroit rejoice, but Cleveland and Denver worry their NFL teams are already stricken from the pecking order of contenders.
Alas, it’s only one week.
But with overreaction and betting action, there’s movement at sportsbooks, too.
Here’s a look at the post-Week 1 odds for well-loved futures markets:
MVP
One win and a little life from receiving targets not named Kelce pushed Patrick Mahomes from a +550 open to consensus odds of +350. DraftKings kept Mahomes at +400 after Week 1, but there’s better value looking right behind the two-time MVP.
Josh Allen scored four touchdowns and will be in position to outproduce Mahomes and most others because of his penchant for taking off as a runner. He had two rushing touchdowns—and narrowly evaded a left hand injury—and two TD passes in leading a rally to beat the Cardinals, 34-28. There is not much argument over whether Allen or most other QBs did more, or was more valuable, to his team in Week 1. He’s still +550 consensus and but dropping (+500 at DraftKings, Bet Rivers).
Our value finds lean into the overreaction of abandoning real candidates such as Bengals QB Joe Burrow and 2023 MVP runner-up Dak Prescott, not to mention 2023 MVP Lamar Jackson. Jackson is +1200 at DraftKings, but consensus of +1000 for a team likely to win double-digit games.
Prescott is also a value at DraftKings (+2000) but +1600 nearly everywhere else. We’re not afraid of Burrow’s Week 1 dud, it’s borderline customary in Cincinnati, where Zac Taylor is 1-10 in his coaching career in weeks 1 and 2. Get Burrow for MVP at +1700 at DraftKings because BetMGM (+1400) and others are taking the odds the other direction.
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Coach of the Year
C.J. Stroud is receiving a level of attention that has erased most of the value in his MVP futures, but his head coach, DeMeco Ryans, hasn’t experienced a similar spike. Currently fourth in consensus odds for Coach of the Year at +1400, Ryans isn’t our favorite option in this futures market.
Lions coach Dan Campbell sits at +2100 at FanDuel, 10 spots behind co-favorites Matt Eberflus (Bears) and John Harbaugh (Chargers). Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel is +2200 at DraftKings and could be two days away from beating the Bills and steering Miami into the driver’s seat in the AFC East. Ravens head coach John Harbaugh is +7500 at DraftKings, just ahead of Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy at +8000.
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Offensive Rookie of the Year
Caleb Williams won his debut, but the Bears generated 148 total yards and needed touchdowns from their defense and special teams to put points on the board. He’s still a surprising +140 at FanDuel and the prevailing favorite across the board. DraftKings offers the best value if you want to back Williams (+165).
But Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels (+470) at FanDuel and Chiefs first-rounder Xavier Worthy (two touchdowns) at +1200 at BetMGM are wickedly attractive in this market. For anyone in a forgiving mood after Marvin Harrison Jr. was invisible at Buffalo, grab him for +800 at DraftKings.
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