This story was originally published by Dead Spin
We read and read, we prepare, we cram… and then we’re on the clock to make an early-round fantasy pick, and it all goes out the window.
Do we stick to our bold game plan or veer from it and take perhaps a safer, less risky approach?
Stick with the plan.
Or at least devise a similar game plan on the fly. Either way, you must be willing to take chances, even if it goes against the norm. Here are three such risks worth taking:
Take a RB in the first 2 rounds, no matter what.
Oct 1, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Derrick Nnadi (91) is called for a horsecollar penalty against New York Jets running back Breece Hall (20) at MetLife Stadium. credits: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports ESPN’s Average Draft Picks (ADP) show that only nine RBs are being taken in the first 22 picks, meaning owners are willing to wait on ’em while focusing on other positions (likely WR). There’s even a “zero-RBs” (early) strategy popping up due to the unpredictability of RBs from year to year.
It’s true that the role of running backs has changed in today’s high-flying game, and the number of quality backs has led to top 10 producers often coming from beyond the early rounds.
But here’s the thing: The effort and sheer lack of sleep that comes with attempting to find those RBs is just not worth it. We’d even go so far as to say you should try to get TWO top-17 RBs in the first four rounds, then you can focus on other positions.
Take Marvin Harrison Jr. as early as you have to.
Apr 25, 2024; Detroit, MI, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. poses after being selected by the Arizona Cardinals as the No. 4 pick in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft at Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports He’s being taken around the 24th pick in ESPN leagues, the 10th WR. That’s right about—or maybe slightly above—the top rookie receiver in any given season.
Now, since Randy Moss, Ja’Marr Chase and others have skewed what we think rookies are capable of, more rookies have NOT lived up to the billing than those who have. But Harrison is about as safe as any other WR in that 7–15 rankings range. He’s a proven playmaker with elite NFL bloodlines, playing No. 1 WR in an offense that can easily support a top-15 receiver (see: DeAndre Hopkins). He’s likely to get 10-plus targets per week, plenty of red-zone chances, and should have plenty of space with quarterback Kyler Murray stretching defenses with his scrambling ability.
Stream your defense and special teams units.
Nov 26, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos offensive tackle Garett Bolles (72) holds Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett (95) in the second quarter at Empower Field at Mile High. credits: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports If you were to examine the D/ST fantasy scoring at the end of any given season, it’s just as likely you’ll see a defense ranked in the bottom half of the preseason rankings as the top half. It’s true; we did the research for you. So that means you shouldn’t devote much draft stock to what you “perceive” to be a top-10 unit.
Just as important as the defense itself in a given week is which offense it plays. The worst offenses—say, the Patriots, Giants or Raiders this season—can make a D look like the ’85 Bears. So chase those defenses playing a bottom-5 offense, and you get high-end production from a late-round or even waiver-wire pickup. And hey, early on, you might just roster a juggernaut you decide to ride. More power to you!
