This story was originally published by Dead Spin
While NFL rosters are being set Tuesday, MLB roster revisions are due next week.
September call-ups can change how a team plays and what kind of value exists on that squad. As teams bring up new blood, it’s important to measure twice and adjust your strategy accordingly.
We still have a few days before we get there, meaning a winning strategy—or an effective one—can be employed on Tuesday.
Here’s a look at our best bets for August 27.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers
The Angels’ lack of effort against lesser teams remains appalling. They’re coming off a four-game sweep at the hands of the Blue Jays, and they weren’t competitive in three of the four games. Toronto covered the run line in all but one game, and the Angels have now gone 3-12 ATS in their past 15 games.
Things only get worse from there, as the Angels are 4-15 SU against teams that are well out of the playoff race since the All-Star break. What makes this team maddening is that the Angels are capable of playing decent baseball, as they showed with a sweep of Seattle and series wins over both New York teams. But when the opponent has nothing on the line, the Angels usually can’t be bothered.
Detroit really can’t seem to figure out what it wants to be. The Tigers have won five of their past six games, but that also gets an asterisk because four came against the Double-A team masquerading as the 2024 Chicago White Sox. However, before that, the Tigers did win five of six against Seattle and the Yankees, and they’ve won six of eight at Comerica Park. Against the disinterested Angels, the Tigers should roll.
Tigers -1.5 (+130, ESPN BET)
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Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Is Jared Jones really ready to return to the majors? The results during his rehab stint at Triple-A Indianapolis weren’t promising. He lasted just 2.2 innings in his first effort against Nashville, and Saint Paul whacked him for four earned runs in the top of the first inning in his second start.
He seemed to get things sorted out against Columbus, but one solid game against a Triple-A lineup isn’t great preparation for facing Justin Steele. Quietly, the Cubs have played pretty good baseball in August, and Steele’s pitching has been part of their rise.
Chicago is 4-0 SU in Steele’s past four starts, and he’s held five of his past six opponents to two runs or less. If Jones has another bad early inning here, the Pirates might not have the ability to come back. Given how the Cubs have put up 34 runs in their past three games, another bad inning from Jones is a strong possibility.
Cubs moneyline (-120, Caesars)
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Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings
Something is off with Vegas right now. The Aces are 0-8 ATS in their past eight contests, and they’ve dropped four of their past six straight up. They’re still winning games on the road, which has papered over some of the issues, but this doesn’t look like a championship team at the moment.
One issue is that Vegas’ shooting has recently gone south. The Aces lead the WNBA in field goal percentage, but they shot less than 40% against Chicago last time out. There’s not a lot that Dallas does well, but scoring has never been an issue for the Wings.
Dallas comes off a win against Los Angeles and a tough battle with New York. Betting the Wings isn’t a great feeling, but with Vegas clearly not itself right now, that’s where the value lies.
Wings +9.5 (-115, BetMGM)
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