This story was originally published by Dead Spin
Let’s spin around the diamond to start your Tuesday with an intriguing matchup at Camden Yards, featuring the Orioles’ potent offense teeing it up against Jameson Taillon and the Chicago Cubs.
Baltimore comes in bent on proving it deserved more recognition in All-Star voting while the Cubs arrive as the fifth-place team in the National League Central.
Here’s a look at today’s betting angles:
Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles, 6:35 p.m. ET
Jameson Taillon (5-4, 2.99 ERA) hits Baltimore with a record worse than his numbers. He hasn’t given up more than three earned runs in five consecutive starts, but his undoing has been the longball. Taillon doesn’t have a history against the Orioles to write home about. Cedric Mullins has two home runs and a .417 batting average, and outfielder Austin Hays, who has five hits with three doubles in his past eight ABs entering the series, is 8-for-14 in the matchup.
Taillon has never faced shortstop and MVP candidate Gunnar Henderson or outfielder Heston Kjerstad. Since he was called up from Norfolk, Kjerstad is batting .407 with three home runs in 10 games.
We’re avoiding the run line—as enticing as 9 can be with this Baltimore bunch, Taillon’s string of quality starts bring pause—in the event the Cubs’ offense remains in a slumber and focusing on the whiff factor. Taillon has 22Ks in his previous three starts and is a generous 4.5 total.
Dean Kremer starts for Baltimore and is relatively new to most Cubs’ hitters. He blanked the Mariners last week in his second outing with the Orioles since May.
Kremer is getting the same 4.5 total, a number he cleared easily in three of his past four starts, including outings with eight and 10 strikeouts in the past month.
Parlay strikeouts over 4.5 Taillon (-113, FanDuel), over 4.5 Kremer (-125, FanDuel): +203, FanDuel
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies, 6:41 p.m. ET
Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers take on Zach Wheeler and the Phillies, with Bryce Harper always standing by as a threat to steal the spotlight in a marquee matchup of the National League’s premier swingers.
Home run odds are not generous for a reason. Ohtani (+220) and Harper (+300) could very well be trotting around the bases on Monday night, but we’re leaning into their penchant to find their way on base on Tuesday. Harper is not a sure thing to start as of Tuesday morning. He ran the bases Sunday prior to the Phillies’ loss to the Braves and has been sidelined with a hamstring injury.
Ohtani, with 28 home runs and 20 steals, is -210 to score his 73rd run of the season and +105 to knock in a run.
Shohei Ohtani to score a run, drive in a run +136 at FanDuel
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Copa America Semifinals: Argentina vs. Canada, 8 p.m. ET
Lionel Messi is the all-time leader in assists in Copa America, and already Argentina took down Canada in the opening game of this tournament in Atlanta.
Since then, Canada has gained some confidence but done little scoring—a requirement to unseat the defending Copa America champs. Canada has two goals outside of penalty kicks and enters Tuesday’s match in New Jersey as a massive underdog.
The Argentina moneyline is -800 and can be as high as -850 because of the depth of the attack.
Rather than focusing on the greatness of Messi or the dominance of Argentina, we’re locking on the strategy employed by Canada in this tournament to play stingy and aggressive defense but not as fast and furious on attacking the goal.
Under 2.5 total goals (-118 at Caesars Sportsbook)
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