This story was originally published by Dead Spin
Four games are on tap for the first day of the postseason after the Mets and Braves split their day-after-the-final-day doubleheader.Â
The results sent New York to Milwaukee and Atlanta to San Diego for the first round of the playoffs, while Detroit faces Houston and Kansas City goes to Baltimore in the best-of-three wildcard series.
In a short series, Game 1 is massive. Here’s a look at some of the best plays available on the opening day of the playoffs.
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros
The counter-theory on the table would be Detroit is just too spent after its long run to the postseason to have anything left for Houston. Given that the Tigers lost their final two regular-season games to the White Sox, that’s a possibility not to be summarily denied.Â
But Tarik Skubal is on the mound for Detroit, and he always gives the Tigers a chance.
Detroit’s ace bullpen has meant that if the Tigers get to the seventh inning with the lead, the game is essentially over. Houston has to find a way to get to Skubal, which nobody has been doing over the past few months. But the Astros also know that they have the advantage over Game 2 and Game 3, while Detroit has to win this game to have any realistic chance at advancing. When you can get a pitcher of Skubal’s caliber at plus money, it’s worth taking.
Tigers moneyline (+130 at BetMGM)
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Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
This total is far too low given what Baltimore is capable of on offense and the Orioles’ weaknesses in the bullpen. The total is low because Corbin Burnes and Cole Ragans represent one of the best matchups on the slate for Tuesday. But unless Burnes plans to go the full nine innings, Kansas City gets a crack at the Orioles’ bullpen.
The Baltimore bullpen ranked 23rd in the majors but is the worst out of the 12 playoff teams.Â
The Royals’ bullpen isn’t great either, ranking 20th overall. If either Ragans or Burnes is anything less than awesome for seven innings, the opposing lineup is going to hit. Baltimore’s offense is too good for anyone but the best pitchers to shut it down, and while Kansas City has been struggling on offense, it has talent in Bobby Witt Jr.Â
Seven runs is reachable.
Over 7 Runs (+105 at Caesars)
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Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres
At least the Braves get to play the last game of the day.Â
Losing Game 1 of the Monday doubleheader and then having Chris Sale scratched with back spasms really screwed up Atlanta’s plans for this series before it began.Â
The Braves had to burn Spencer Schwellenbach and used several other arms and then didn’t have Sale for Game 2, forcing them to burn even more pitching in the must-win game.
Atlanta essentially starts the wild-card round down three starters against a Padres team that is rested and ready. San Diego won the season series with Atlanta 4-3, and the three Braves victories came with Sale or Schwellenbach on the mound. Neither should be available Tuesday, while the Padres get to throw Michael King. King has a 1.59 ERA in his past three starts and hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in a start since Aug. 7. There’s also the matter of the cross-country road trip the Braves had to take to San Diego after snagging the last playoff spot. It’s going to be tough sledding for Atlanta here.
Padres -1.5 (+155 at BetMGM)
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