This story was originally published by Dead Spin
We almost made it.
The dreaded dry sports calendar between the Olympics and the start of college football ends this week.
Olympic sports resumed league seasons this week, with the WNBA already back in gear, the NWSL coming back later this week and a full MLS schedule closing quickly.
And just in time, Florida State and Georgia Tech are flying to Ireland for the ACC opener for a kickstart to the 2024 season.
With three days to go until Saturday, there’s value to be had before then. Here are our best bets for August 21.
Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream
Don’t read too much into the Mercury’s poor showing against Indiana.
Indiana is a bad matchup for Phoenix. The Fever are traditionally a slow-starting team, but they tend to hit the gas when facing the Mercury. And Indiana is greatly improved, as shown by the Fever routing the Storm.
Phoenix rebounded to show it’s still a good team by hammering Chicago right after the loss to Indiana.
All of that suggests that the loss to Caitlin Clark and the Fever had more to do with what the Fever are doing right than what the Mercury are doing wrong. Phoenix is a good-shooting team that can force Atlanta to make jump shots to stick close, and that takes the Dream out of its game.
The Mercury also have someone Atlanta hasn’t seen all season: Brittney Griner. Griner missed the teams’ only meeting of the season, and Phoenix emerged with a three-point win. She’s back, and Atlanta really has nobody who can match up with her. The Dream’s league-worst offense isn’t going to keep up with the Mercury’s attack.
Mercury -2 (-112 at BetRivers)
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Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces
On paper, this is a matchup of a strong offense in Las Vegas vs. a solid defense in Minnesota.
But in practice, how the heck are the Lynx going to keep A’ja Wilson off the glass? Minnesota’s defensive rebounding is by far its biggest weakness on that side of the ball, and that’s a recipe for disaster against Wilson and Las Vegas.
The Lynx did win one of the two meetings with Vegas this season, but a check of the statistics reveals how Minnesota did it. The reason for that win was because the Lynx shot 55% from the floor. There are no rebounds if you make all your shots, but that isn’t sustainable for Minnesota. Their offense is normally middling, except for behind the arc. Odds are, Vegas will have the perimeter well guarded and try to force Minnesota to go inside. The Lynx had to try that in the second meeting and lost by double digits. Expect Vegas to be in control here.
Aces -5.5 (-110, Caesars)
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Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets
Baltimore has a tendency to finish things out on getaway days. The Orioles have won the final game of the series in seven of their past nine series, and they’ve got the better pitching matchup in this one. While Sean Manaea has pitched well for New York this season, he really doesn’t seem to like going back to the American League. Out of his past 10 starts, four of them lasted five innings or less, and three came against AL opponents. His most recent start against an AL foe saw him last just three innings as Seattle handled the Mets 4-0.
The Orioles really need to get some positive momentum going for Houston and the Dodgers, and they have the matchup in their favor. They should take care of business here.
Orioles moneyline (+115, BetMGM)
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